Comments by Terry Foster:
27 June 2008 -
I have attached in this new report for the "other"
Terry, participant #210. You will also see I have added a
new column on the report titled "eTMRCA".
Please do not get too excited about it just yet. I am just
beginning to fiddle with this calculation. For those so inclined,
I would like to see what formulas you can come up with to solve this
(any mathematicians/statisticians in the family?) Ask around, we
could use some help.
Each allele has a 1 in 500 chance of mutating in a
given generation. Lets start with a 67 marker test.
So the base formula would look something like this:
67 X (1 / 500) = 67/500 (13.4%) :Odds of a perfect match.
2 X (67/500) =134/500 : (26.8%)
and so on until you reach the 4th generation when you reach the 50%
mark and 100% in the 8th generation.
Now, all that's based upon a perfect match.
The problem I have is, in my calculations a perfect match is the
same result as 1 off. The odds of being one off in one
generation is 67/500 if you tested 67 alleles. So what are the
odds of being a perfect match?
Go to it egg heads. Give me the mathematic
formula that I could plug into an equation!
Here is our latest report on how we relate DNA
wise so far: Click here